Saturday AM Update: The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard posted $3.05M on Friday from 3,331 locations which now puts the Lionsgate/Millennium sequel on track for a $10M 3-day, $15.3M five-day. Lionsgate is hoping for a bit of a bounce on Father’s Day.Disney/Pixar
Speaking of Father’s Day, wouldn’t it be nice to have a Pixar film in the marketplace instead of for free on Disney+? With NYC and LA permitting cinema capacities to rise to 100% this weekend, Luca, no matter how unknown the IP is, would have truly rained some cash on exhibition. Total weekend B.O. is expected to gross $45M for all movies, which is a plus next to last year, but off 21% from last weekend’s $57.2M Comscore reported weekend total.
Already, people are packing into cinemas here in Los Angeles: A Thursday night screening of F9 at the Burbank AMC was the most I’ve seen in a theater auditorium since February 2020’s Birds of Prey. However, it’s all about the share price and subscribers for Disney, not box office at the moment, and the entertainment conglom missed on 2Q Disney+ subs, brining in 103M subs to Wall Street’s estimate of 109M. That’s why we’re still seeing big product like Black Widow and Jungle Cruise hit the service day-and-date with theaters (and, yes, yes, overseas markets are still in a sling, which prevents the meaty tentpole profits we’re use to seeing).
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Lionsgate is covering around a third of the $50M production cost on Hitman’s 2, and the P&A spend I hear is between $25M-$30M. The sequel’s weekend ticket sales are finding close to a third of its business from Imax and PLF screens. The Ryan Reynolds-Samuel L. Jackson movie’s strongest markets were in the South and the West with some OK numbers in NYC, Philly, Chicago, DC and Detroit. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, Houston, Seattle and Phoenix were better.
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Sony Pictures Classics expanded their Martin Sheen-Luke Wilson sports drama 12 Mighty Orphans to 1,047 (+915) in weekend 2 in 174 markets. Friday earned $231K on its way to an estimated $744K. Pic isn’t beloved by critics at 59% Rotten, but audiences liked it better with close to 80% positive in Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits and a 75% definite recommend. Guys showed up, of course, at 53% and 80% over 25 with an older crowd actually coming out with 49% over 55+ (wow). Diversity demos were Caucasian 78%, Latinx 6%, 9% Black, and 7% Asian/other. Best markets were Mid and Southwest.Focus Features
Other highlights this weekend: Focus Features provided arthouses something to feast on and that’s the Edgar Wright directed MRC documentary The Sparks Brothers which made $100K yesterday in 534 theaters for an expected 3-day of $300K or $561 per theater. The docu, which is on a 30-day theatrical window, saw some notable results in Brooklyn and LA’s Century City and Burbank. Sparks Brothers made its world premiere at Sundance.
Roadside Attractions has on a 17-day window the Sundance docu Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It, which is booked at 227 theaters. The pic made $23,5K yesterday for a 3-day estimated debut of $75K or $330 per location.
According to box office sources in regards to improvement to the exhibition marketplace: Forty-three states are now allowing theatres to operate without capacity restrictions. Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and Puerto Rico are still enforcing auditorium limitations or social distancing guidelines. Number 1 movie circuit AMC is increasing their auditorium capacity cap to 100% in those areas of the U.S. where they allowed, and 75% where social distancing is still being enforced. Over 77% of 5,8K cinemas in U.S./Canada remain open. That translates into 85% of 44K domestic screens in operation.
In Canada, cinemas in Ontario remain closed until late July, including B.O. capital Toronto. On the other hand, Edmonton and Calgary Theaters can reopen to north of a third capacity. British Columbia threw up their doors last Tuesday for 50% capacity. Many movies are feeling the lack of the Great White North in their domestic grosses, which can generate 7%-10% on average. Good news on Canada: 95% of Quebec cinemas are open, along with 73% in Alberta and British Columbia. Saskatchewan also has close to 70% of all movie theaters with the lights back on.
Industry estimates as today:
- Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard (LG) 3,331 theaters, $3.05M Fri/ 3-day $10M/Total $15.3M/Wk 1
- A Quiet Place 2 (Par) 3,392 (-123) theaters, $2.76M Fri (-27%)/3-day $9M (-25%)/Total $124.8M/Wk 4
- Peter Rabbit 2 (Sony) 3,346 theaters $1.86M (-53%)/ 3-day $6.25M /Total $20.5M/Wk 2
- Cruella (Dis) 3,110 theaters (-197) $1.49M (-29%)/3-day est. $5.1M/Total $64.7M/Wk 4
- Conjuring 3 (NL) 3,280 (+43) theaters $1.66M (-54%)/3-day est. $5M (-51%)/Total $53.4M/Wk 3
- In the Heights (WB) 3,509 (+53) theaters $1.375M (-73%)/3-day est. $4.5M (-61%)/Total: $19.9M/Wk 2
Friday AM Update: Lionsgate/Millennium Media’s The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard took in $1.4M on Thursday, which against the pic’s Wednesday+ previews day of $3.9M is a 64% decline. That puts the pic’s running total at $5.3M and puts the sequel on track for a $13M-$15M five-day opening. We’ll update you as it’s still early.
Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II won Thursday with $1.53M at 3,515 theaters, putting its running domestic total at $115.8M. The pic remains the one event film of the summer to beat. Over three days, it could be a close call on No. 1 between Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard and the fourth weekend of A Quiet Place Part II.
Social media analytics corp RelishMix noticed that The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard is a strong social media universe pull of 238 million across Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube, 68% above the mixed-genre norm. The YouTube viral reposting rate is 19:1. The social media campaign for the sequel began a year ago and was re-booted nine weeks ago with the official movie page on Facebook counting 180K fans from the first installment with 45 new videos posting at a high cadence and healthy views of 19.8M, along with another 49.1M views on YouTube. A bulk of the social media firepower comes from Ryan Reynold’s presence with 74.3M fans, over half of them from Instagram. His posts there, per RelishMix, can clock 3.4M-6M views. Samuel L. Jackson has 24.7M followers, Salma Hayek counts 21.3M social media followers, and Antonio Banderas has 8.6M.
Reports RelishMix on the social media buzz, “Positive leaning chatter speculates future installments including the Hitman’s Wife’s Cousin’s Brother’s Uncle’s Mother’s Brother-in-law’s Nanny — plus the delight of Morgan Freeman and Samuel L. Jackson in the same movie. Covid references have diminished as masks rules are lifted and interests grows for the algorithm of Ryan Reynolds + Salma Hayek + Samuel L Jackson + a track by Britney Spears, ‘Hit Me Baby One More Time’ = Perfect recipe for a great movie.”
Previous Thursday: Lionsgate got out early with the Millennium Ryan Reynolds-Samuel L. Jackson action comedy sequel The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard with an official Wednesday debut plus last weekend paid sneaks; all totaled they’ve accumulated $3.9M at 2,940 locations. The whole reason why Lionsgate went early is to collect as much cash as possible before Universal’s F9 comes in next weekend, which is expected to soak up $50-$65M. Distributors and exhibitors are encouraged by the presales they’re seeing for both F9 and Black Widow.Lionsgate
Lionsgate had two sets of sneak previews over the weekend, with about 275 locations in a Atom Tickets/Snapchat sponsorship and another 1,500 locations which both amounted to $1.8M. Tuesday previews amounted to around $815K. The balance yesterday was $1.3M. Industry projections are in the teens for Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard over 5 days with a possible shot at $20M. The theater count will increase on Friday to 3,331. Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard is on a 42-day theatrical window, I hear, versus Lionsgate’s Spiral which was on an 18-day window. While Lionsgate was never planning on this, but with Juneteenth becoming a federal holiday (June 19), and many businesses giving employees’ Friday off, it’s possible that some people will find their way to the movies. CinemaScore audiences gave the sequel a B to the first installment’s B+. Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard adds Morgan Freeman and Antonio Banderas. PostTrak audience exits showed 75% positive with a 53% definite recommend which is much better than what critics thought at 26% on Rotten Tomatoes (the first movie wasn’t beloved by critics either at 43% Rotten). Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard pulled in 56% guys, 60% over 25 with 57% between 18-34 years old. Diversity mix was 43% Caucasian, 30% Latinx, 14% Black, & 13% Asian/Other. The sequel saw an uptick in its Latinx crowd vs. the first movie which only had 21% Hispanic. I hear that Imax and PLF repped 20% of ticket sales to date.
The first Hitman’s Bodyguard opened to $21.3M during the third weekend of August in 2017 and went on to make $75.4M domestic, $101.1M WW off a reported $30M production cost. Lionsgate has skin in the game I hear on the sequel. It’s not a distribution deal with the distributor taking U.S. rights, UK and Latin American territories. UK and Mexico are also opening this weekend for the sequel.
Paramount’s A Quiet Place 2 took second place on Wednesday with $1.53M, down 10% from Tuesday at 3,515 locations. Pic’s running total stands at $114.3M. The pic in its third session last weekend toppled Warner Bros.’ In the Heights for the No. 1 spot, $12M to $11.5M.
Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway did $975K yesterday, -20% at 3,346 for a running total of $13.2M.