French President Emmanuel Macron's government faces two motions of no confidence in the National Assembly on Monday after it bypassed the lower house to push through a deeply unpopular overhaul of the pension system that will raise the retirement age.
Violent unrest has erupted in several cities including the capital, Paris, and trade unions have promised to intensify their strike movement, leaving Macron to face the most dangerous challenge to his authority.
"It's not a failure, it's a total train wreck," Laurent Berger, head of the moderate CFDT trade union, told newspaper Liberation.
The no-confidence votes look unlikely to pass, but the result could be tight. A successful no-confidence vote would fell the government and kill the legislation, which is set to raise the retirement age by two years to 64.
No such motion has succeeded since 1962.
The Senate, dominated by conservatives who back the retirement plan, passed the legislation last week.
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Sunday called the votes "a moment of truth" for the government.
Les Republicains the party to watch
To bring down the government, Macron's opponents require the support of a majority of the 577 lawmakers, in an alliance that would need to span from the hard left to the far right.
Senior officials from the conservative Les Republicains (LR) party have said they will not get behind the no-confidence motions. But there are rebels among their ranks.
One of them, Aurelien Pradie, who was removed from his post as No. 2 in the party over his opposition to the pension legislation, said about 15 LR lawmakers were ready to back the tripartisan motion.
WATCH | Violent protests continue after pension plan progresses in legislature:
Le Monde calculated that at least 26 LR lawmakers would need to back the motion for it to succeed.
Even if the motions flop, Macron's failure to find enough support in parliament to put his pension system overhaul to a vote has undermined his reformist agenda and weakened his leadership, observers say.
"The government would remain in place, although it would be significantly weakened, while social protests against the reform would likely continue for some weeks, which could negatively affect the French economy," Barclays said in a briefing note.
Weeks of strikes
An Elabe opinion survey showed two-thirds of French people wanted the government to fall, underlining the public perception challenges Macron faces ahead.
Other surveys showed his own popularity falling to its lowest since the 2018-2019 Yellow Vest uprising, a revolt which started as a grassroots protest movement against higher diesel taxes but morphed into a broader anti-Macron rebellion.
"This is perhaps the last democratic moment for the Assembly to make the government think twice," said Frederic, a Paris resident who preferred not to give his last name.
Rolling strikes at refineries entered a 13th day. Production at refineries in Normandy and Feyzin has been reduced as a blockade on shipments left storage tanks near full.
Garbage in Paris is piling ever higher and reeking of rotting food on the 15th day of a strike by collectors.
Were a no-confidence vote to obtain a majority, a new cabinet would then be appointed. Macron could retain Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne or replace her; no other name has been floated.
Borne has taken the brunt of the opposition's fury and will have to defend herself Monday before lawmakers.
